The latest Ipsos poll shows that Canada is more united today than it was seven years ago, despite harsher political rhetoric around separatism, particularly in Alberta.
The data, taken from a Confederation Stress Test survey that previously examined separatist voting intentions, shows that some highly rated actions have subsided since 2019.
“We’ve been monitoring this for some time.… National unity in Canada and how people feel about Confederation, whether their provinces are being treated fairly,” said Jack Gregory, Ipsos senior vice-president of Public Affairs.
“What we found when we looked at it this year was that some of those measures actually failed because people felt the country was more divided than ever, that their province wasn’t getting its fair share.
Gregory said the findings were somewhat unexpected given the current political debate.
“It’s a little surprising to us because obviously in the current situation, there’s been a lot of talk about separatism in Alberta and unhappiness with the way the federation is working.”
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Ipsos tracking shows that in 2019, six in 10 Canadians said the country was “more divided than ever.”
That figure now stands at 55 percent, according to new data.
In Alberta, where feelings of isolation have historically been higher, the changes are more pronounced.
“Eight in 10 Albertans said so in 2019 and now it’s just seven in 10,” Gregory said.
Perceptions of economic justice also appear to have changed.
In 2019, Ipsos found that 65 per cent of Albertans believed their province did not get its fair share of Confederation. New data puts this figure at 51 percent.
Nationally, similar figures have decreased from 35 percent to 27 percent.
Support for separation also softened.
“The number who said their province would be better off if it separated was actually lower in Alberta than in 2019.”
Gregory noted that the previous vote came at a time of heightened political tensions.
“The 2019 vote came after an election when the Conservative Party was shut out in western Manitoba, and there was still a lot of talk about energy constraints, Indigenous blockades and all the things we were worried about just months before COVID.”
While dissatisfaction in Alberta remains higher than the national average, Gregory said the broader trend is toward less intensity.
“To be sure, there is still anger in Alberta, especially when compared to national numbers, but the numbers are lower than they were seven years ago despite increasingly loud calls for independence.”
Gregory said several factors could help explain the shift in attitudes, including political developments in Alberta and broader changes in the national climate since 2020.
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